咖啡种植业面临威胁

如果你每天早上都要喝一杯拿铁、卡布奇诺或是浓缩咖啡才能振作精神，那么从现在起，你可能需要注意了。专家说，咖啡一族们每天花在咖啡上的消费很可能会开始上涨，而且咖啡的口味也有可能不比从前。这究竟是为什么呢？

 

Do you like drinking coffee? I certainly do. In fact you could say I'm an addict¹ because I have to drink a cup every morning to kick-start my day and get my brain working! Latte, cappuccino, espresso – you name it, I'll drink it. And I'm not alone – it seems like everyone has a coffee cup glued to their hands as they rush to the office. So how would we survive if there was a coffee drought?

 

Well, experts are warning that our favourite caffeine shot could really be under threat. Our love for coffee could mean that demand outstrips² supply. This, of course, could hit us in the pocket but there's even worse news – we could face poorer-tasting coffee. This is the view of scientists at London's Kew Gardens who are blaming global warming for this possible hot beverage³ crisis.

 

Demand for coffee has certainly increased as people have become more affluent⁴. Consumption has doubled in the last 35 years. Last year 9.5 billion kilos were consumed. But as we drink more, the areas where coffee is grown is predicted to shrink. The International Coffee Organisation⁵ says that bean production in South East Asia, for example, will decrease by 70% by 2050. The BBC spoke⁶ to Dr Tim Schilling, director of the World Coffee Research institute, who says: "The supply of high-quality coffee is severely⁷ threatened by climate change, diseases and pests, land pressure, and labour shortages - and demand for these coffees is rising every year."

 

This is a sobering thought for those of us who rely on a caffeine fix everyday but more worrying for people who work in the industry. Coffee provides a livelihood⁸ for about 16% of Ethiopia's population. And across the globe, extreme weather events are proving a challenge to coffee growers in places such as Brazil and Vietnam. 

 

There is some hope. Technology is helping⁹ to protect the future of coffee such as 'breeding' the Arabica bean plants to increase its diversity and making it resistant¹⁰ to climatic changes. It's also possible to relocate the coffee-growing areas – although this sometimes leads to areas being deforested. Dr Aaron Davis, coffee researcher at Kew, says: "There is the potential to mitigate¹¹ some of the negatives and actually increase the coffee-growing area by four and a half times compared with maintaining the status quo." But will this come quick enough before our coffee turns bitter and we look for a cheaper alternative?

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