中国经济明年有望实现强劲复苏

新华社12月22日报道，美国高级经济学家、乔治华盛顿大学经济学副教授阿尔伯特·凯德尔表示，中国经济存在潜力，在政策刺激下，明年有望实现强劲复苏。他认为，展望2023年，“中国经济将保持强劲”，“将成为世界的亮点”，为全球需求提供“一个支撑点”。

 

The Chinese economy is poised¹ to deliver solid rebound² next year, bolstered³ by its underlying⁴ strength and policy stimulus⁵, a senior U.S. economist⁶ has said.

美国高级经济学家、乔治华盛顿大学经济学副教授阿尔伯特·凯德尔表示，中国经济存在潜力，在政策刺激下，明年有望实现强劲复苏。

 

"2023 should be a rebound year, there's a lot of stimulus now in investment," Albert Keidel, a development economist specializing in East Asia, told Xinhua in a recent interview.

凯德尔是专门从事东亚研究的发展经济学家，他在接受新华社采访时表示：“2023年应该是中国经济复苏的一年，现在中国已经采取了很多鼓励投资的政策。”

 

"With low inflation, China is in a good position to use its countercyclical tools to stimulate⁷ the economy now and in 2023," he said, adding that "the underlying economy remains⁸ healthy."

他表示：“在通胀保持在较低水平的情况下，中国现在和明年都可以利用其逆周期工具刺激经济。经济根基仍然稳固。”

 

Keidel, an adjunct professor of economics at George Washington University, said China's economy has maintained resilience amid challenges from COVID incursions and a complex international environment.

凯德尔表示，面对新冠疫情和复杂国际环境的挑战，中国经济保持韧性。

 

Sectors⁹ such as high-tech¹⁰, e-economy and e-commerce sales have presented a strong momentum¹¹, evidenced in key economic indicators¹² so far this year, he said.

他表示，高科技、网络经济和电商销售等行业呈现强劲势头，今年迄今为止的关键经济指标证明了这一点。

 

"The strong point is investment levels are quite high, particularly public investments," which also bodes¹³ well for continued expansion next year and beyond, noted¹⁴ Keidel, previously¹⁵ a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank.

凯德尔曾是美国智库大西洋理事会高级研究员，他指出，“优势在于投资水平相当高，尤其是公共投资”，也显示出明年及以后将持续增长的势头。

 

Moreover, the substantial increase of foreign direct investment in the Chinese mainland showed "a lot of confidence there" from global investors¹⁶, he said.

此外，他表示，在中国大陆的外国直接投资大幅增加，表明全球投资者对中国大陆“信心十足”。

 

The economist, also a former senior economist at the World Bank's Beijing office, said China's COVID-19 policy over the past three years has helped minimize the disruption to the structure and organization of the labor¹⁷ force, laying a foundation for the economy.

凯德尔曾是世界银行驻华代表处高级经济学家，他说，中国过去三年的防疫政策有助于将疫情对劳动力结构组织的影响降至最低，为经济发展奠定了基础。

 

As China is making efforts to optimize¹⁸ its pandemic response, more potential in the economy will be unleashed¹⁹, in particular in the fields that require face-to-face services such as restaurants and catering²⁰, he said.

他表示，随着中国努力优化防疫政策，经济将释放出更多潜力，特别是在餐饮业等需要面对面服务的领域。

 

Looking ahead to 2023, "the Chinese economy will be strong," and "will be a bright spot in the world," providing "a node of support in terms of global demand," said Keidel.

凯德尔表示，展望2023年，“中国经济将保持强劲”，“将成为世界的亮点”，为全球需求提供“一个支撑点”。

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