服务业消费复苏开局强劲

 

随着更好统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展，我国实体商业人气回暖，线上零售增势不减，餐饮、电影票房复苏强劲，节日市场繁荣有序。持续升温的假日消费，彰显中国市场的潜力和韧性。

 

China's economic recovery is on the right track and the recovery of consumption of services has gotten off to a strong start, said experts at foreign institutions.

外国机构专家表示，中国经济复苏步入正轨，服务业消费复苏开局强劲。

The country's offline consumer service sectors¹ like tourism, movies and catering³, which were severely⁴ hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, saw a strong rebound⁵ in demand during the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday in late January, said Fitch Ratings.

惠誉评级表示，受新冠肺炎疫情严重打击的旅游、电影和餐饮等线下消费服务行业，在1月底春节黄金周期间需求强劲反弹。

Domestic tourist trips during the holiday jumped 23.1 percent year-on-year, recovering to around 90 percent of the pre-pandemic level during the same period of 2019, while tourism spending rose 30 percent year-on-year. Cinema box-office receipts achieved the second-highest take on record, and the number of tickets sold was only slightly below the 2019 level, according to official figures.

今年春节假期期间，我国国内旅游人次同比增长23.1%，恢复到疫情前2019年同期水平的90%左右，旅游消费同比增长30%。官方数据显示，2023年春节档票房成绩位居中国影史第二，观影人次仅略低于2019年的水平。

National retail⁶ and catering revenues reported by key enterprises increased 6.8 percent year-on-year. Dine-in consumption at restaurants and eateries grew strongly by 15.4 percent year-on-year, with average restaurant spending up 10.8 percent, according to the Ministry⁷ of Commerce.

全国重点企业零售和餐饮收入同比增长6.8%。根据商务部的数据，堂食消费额同比大增15.4%，餐馆平均消费额增长了10.8%。

Darius Tang, associate director of corporates at Fitch Bohua, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, said: "The decisive factor of China's economic growth in 2023 is the degree of consumption recovery, which depends on the strength of the stimulus⁸ policies and how COVID-19 would evolve. Even though these are still uncertain, the expansion of consumption scenarios⁹ triggered by the adjustment of pandemic control measures has a very definite and positive effect on the recovery of consumption."

惠誉评级子公司惠誉博华工商企业部副总监唐大千表示：“2023年中国经济增长的决定性因素是消费复苏的程度，这取决于刺激政策的力度以及新冠病毒将如何变异。尽管这些仍存在不确定性，但疫情防控措施调整引发的消费场景扩大对消费复苏具有非常明确和积极的影响。”

Lu Ting, Nomura's chief China economist¹⁰, said, "As sequential GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 was much faster than we had expected, and as China's population seems to be reaching herd¹¹ immunity¹² quickly following the reopening in early December, we are raising our 2023 annual GDP growth forecast to 5.3 percent from 4.8 percent."

野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺表示：“由于中国2022年四季度GDP环比增速远超预期，并且在2022年12月初迎来重新开放后，国内建立免疫屏障的速度快于预期，我们将对2023年全年GDP增速的预期从4.8%上调至5.3%。”

The country's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 50.1 in January, up from 47 in December, ending three months of contraction¹³. Thanks to recovery of the services sector², nonmanufacturing business activity index significantly increased to 54.4 from 41.6, much better than the expected 51.5.

1月份，中国公布的制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）升至50.1，高于去年12月的47，结束了连续3个月的收缩。得益于服务业的复苏，非制造业商务活动指数从41.6大幅上升至54.4，远好于预期的51.5。

The January rebound in PMI is in line with consumption figures during the Lunar New Year holiday, demonstrating a strong recovery in the Chinese economy. More importantly, the number of COVID-19 infections did not rebound significantly during the holiday, paving the way for further normalization¹⁴ of production and consumption activities, said the UBS Chief Investment Office.

1月份PMI的反弹与春节期间的消费数据相符，表明中国经济强劲复苏。瑞银首席投资办公室表示，更重要的是，新冠肺炎感染人数在假期期间没有明显反弹，为生产和消费活动的进一步正常化铺平了道路。

This year, although slower exports will have a negative impact on China's economic growth, consumption growth in the country is expected to rebound to about 7 percent. In addition, investment is likely to stabilize¹⁵ at around 5.5 percent. Combined, these factors will hopefully drive the full-year economic growth to about 5 percent, said analysts¹⁶ at the UBS CIO.

今年，尽管出口放缓将对中国经济增长产生负面影响，但中国的消费增长预计将反弹至7%左右。另外，投资也有可能稳定在5.5%左右。瑞银首席投资办公室的分析师说，综合这些因素，有望推动全年经济增长达到5%左右。

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