专家预测：中国货币政策将继续保持稳健宽松Analysts stay upbeat

时间：2023-07-03 01:26:21

（单词翻译:单击）

 
近期国内多地出现聚集性疫情，加之国际地缘政治不稳定因素显著增加，我国企业生产经营活动受到一定影响。3月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数均降至收缩区间，表明我国经济总体景气水平有所回落。但分析人士仍对中国经济中长期前景持乐观态度。专家预测，未来几个月，政府将出台更有力的财政政策和更宽松的货币政策，进一步提振经济增长。
 
China's manufacturing activities contracted in March for the first time in five months due to various uncertainties1 and negative impacts from home and abroad.
受国内外多重不稳定因素影响，3月份中国制造业活动出现五个月来的首次收缩。
However, analysts2 and officials remain upbeat about the medium- and long-term prospects3 of the Chinese economy, as the country still has room for macro policy fine-tuning and adjustments.
然而，分析人士和官员对中国经济中长期前景仍持乐观态度，认为中国宏观经济政策仍有作为空间。
They expected a stronger fiscal4 policy and more easing monetary5 measures in the coming months to further shore up growth, including tax reductions, more infrastructure6 investment, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts.
他们预测，未来几个月，政府将出台更有力的财政政策和更宽松的货币政策，包括减税、增加基础设施投资、下调存贷款基准利率和存款准备金率，进一步提振经济增长。
The purchasing managers index for China's manufacturing sector7 stood at 49.5 in March, compared with 50.2 in February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, slipping into contraction8 after staying in expansionary territory for four consecutive9 months. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.
国家统计局数据显示，3月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5，而2月份为50.2。中国制造业PMI在连续四个月保持扩张态势后，开始下滑。PMI以50点为“荣枯分水线”。
The nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers the services and construction sectors10, was at 48.4 versus11 51.6 in February, slipping into contraction for the first time in seven months, according to the NBS.
根据国家统计局数据，涵盖服务业和建筑业的非制造业PMI为48.4，2月份为51.6，七个月来首次出现收缩。
Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician with the NBS, said the resurgence12 in COVID-19 cases that affected13 some areas has dealt a blow to service sectors, such as transportation, accommodations and catering14.
国家统计局高级统计师赵庆河表示，国内部分地区疫情出现反弹，给交通运输业和餐饮业等服务行业带来冲击。
For manufacturers, the resurgence has affected the production and operation of some enterprises, and the escalating15 geopolitical tensions led to a decline in or the cancellation16 of export orders, Zhao said.
赵庆河称，疫情反复使部分制造业企业的生产经营受到影响，不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势导致出口订单减少或取消。
Zhao added that midstream and downstream enterprises are also facing pressure from the rising costs of raw materials, with surging commodity prices clouding the outlook.
他表示，中下游企业也面临着原材料成本上涨的压力，大宗商品价格大幅上涨给行业前景蒙上阴影。
However, businesses remained upbeat about future business prospects, Zhao said. The enterprises surveyed said that suppressed demand and production would gradually recover with the government's effective measures to control the pandemic, and the market is likely to rebound17.
不过，赵庆河表示，企业对未来的商业前景仍持乐观态度。调查企业反映，随着疫情得到有效控制，受抑制的产需将会逐步恢复，市场有望回暖。
Despite the downward pressures, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist18 at Yuekai Securities, highlighted that the high-tech19 manufacturing PMI had stayed in expansionary territory, saying this indicates the steady progress of economic structural20 transformation21 and high-quality development.
粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒强调，尽管面临经济下行压力，但高科技制造业PMI一直处于扩张区间，这表明经济结构转型和高质量发展稳步推进。
Luo said the current economic situation requires a proactive fiscal policy, such as promoting the issuance of local government special bonds to accelerate infrastructure construction and stabilize22 investment, and more efforts should also be made to ensure the basic livelihood23 of people affected by COVID outbreaks.
罗志恒认为，当前经济形势下需要采取积极的财政政策，比如加快地方政府专项债券发行，推动基础设施建设和稳定投资，还应该采取更多措施，保障受疫情影响地区人民群众的基本生活。
Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Chasing International Economic Institute, estimated that the manufacturing PMI reading may expand above the 50-point mark in the following months with the help of the government's effective measures to control the pandemic and stabilize growth.
财新国际经济研究院副院长吴朝明估计，随着政府采取有效措施控制疫情和稳定增长，未来几个月制造业PMI可能会重回50点以上。
Experts said the intensifying24 economic headwinds could persuade the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, to launch near-term easing measures such as cutting the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates.
专家表示，为应对经济发展所面临的压力，中国人民银行可能会实施短期宽松政策，下调存款准备金率和政策利率。
At its first-quarter monetary policy committee meeting, the PBOC declared its determination to stabilize the economy by pledging "more substantial support" for the real economy and efforts to improve the transmission mechanism25 of monetary policy, according to a statement released on Wednesday.
3月30日消息称，在中国人民银行货币政策委员会2022年第一季度例会上，中国人民银行宣布其决心稳定经济，承诺为实体经济提供更有力支持，进一步疏通货币政策传导机制。
The statement highlighted the emerging challenges posed by escalating geopolitical tensions and more frequent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, in addition to the lingering pressures from shrinking demand, supply shocks and weaker expectations.
中国人民银行声明强调，当前国内疫情发生频次有所增多，地缘政治冲突升级，经济发展面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力。
Yu Yongding, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China should stick with a fairly expansionary monetary policy to ensure the stabilization26 of growth, in spite of overseas central banks' interest rate hikes and potentially higher inflationary pressure.
中国社会科学院高级经济学家余永定表示，尽管海外央行加息，通胀压力可能上升，中国应坚持扩张性货币政策，以确保经济增长稳定。
"The risk of inflation has risen due to changes in the international environment. But monetary tightening27 won't be the sensible solution to inflation caused by supply shocks," Yu said.
他表示：“国际环境的变化导致通胀风险加剧。但货币紧缩并不是解决供应冲击造成的通货膨胀的明智办法。”
If inflationary pressure worsens amid restrictions28 on the global commodity supply, responsive measures other than monetary policy should be taken, as tightening monetary policy in such circumstances risks triggering deflation, said Yu, who is also a former member of the PBOC's monetary policy committee.
余永定曾任中国人民银行货币政策委员会委员，他认为，如果在全球商品供应受到限制的情况下通胀压力加剧，则应采取货币政策以外的应对措施，因为在这种情况下收紧货币政策有可能引发通货紧缩。
It is advisable for the PBOC to further ease credit conditions to tide over small and medium-sized enterprises amid difficulties while supporting infrastructure investment by reducing the financing costs of related government bonds, he added.
余永定还表示，中国人民银行宜进一步放宽信贷条件，以帮助中小企业渡过难关，同时通过降低相关政府债券的融资成本来支持基础设施投资。

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1 uncertainties 40ee42d4a978cba8d720415c7afff06a     
无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物
参考例句：
  • One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
  • Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告
2 analysts 167ff30c5034ca70abe2d60a6e760448     
分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )
参考例句：
  • City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
  • I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。
3 prospects fkVzpY     
n.希望，前途(恒为复数)
参考例句：
  • There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
  • They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。
4 fiscal agbzf     
adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的
参考例句：
  • The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
  • The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。
5 monetary pEkxb     
adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的
参考例句：
  • The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
  • Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。
6 infrastructure UbBz5     
n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施
参考例句：
  • We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
  • We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。
7 sector yjczYn     
n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形
参考例句：
  • The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
  • The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。
8 contraction sn6yO     
n.缩略词，缩写式，害病
参考例句：
  • The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
  • The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。
9 consecutive DpPz0     
adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的
参考例句：
  • It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
  • The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。
10 sectors 218ffb34fa5fb6bc1691e90cd45ad627     
n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形
参考例句：
  • Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
11 versus wi7wU     
prep.以…为对手，对；与…相比之下
参考例句：
  • The big match tonight is England versus Spain.今晚的大赛是英格兰对西班牙。
  • The most exciting game was Harvard versus Yale.最富紧张刺激的球赛是哈佛队对耶鲁队。
12 resurgence QBSzG     
n.再起，复活，再现
参考例句：
  • A resurgence of his grief swept over Nim.悲痛又涌上了尼姆的心头。
  • Police say drugs traffickers are behind the resurgence of violence.警方说毒贩是暴力活动重新抬头的罪魁祸首。
13 affected TzUzg0     
adj.不自然的，假装的
参考例句：
  • She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
  • His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。
14 catering WwtztU     
n. 给养
参考例句：
  • Most of our work now involves catering for weddings. 我们现在的工作多半是承办婚宴。
  • Who did the catering for your son's wedding? 你儿子的婚宴是由谁承办的？
15 escalating 1b4e810e65548c7656e9ea468e403ca1     
v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的现在分词 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大
参考例句：
  • The cost of living is escalating. 生活费用在迅速上涨。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • The cost of living is escalating in the country. 这个国家的生活费用在上涨。 来自辞典例句
16 cancellation BxNzQO     
n.删除，取消
参考例句：
  • Heavy seas can cause cancellation of ferry services.海上风浪太大，可能须要取消渡轮服务。
  • Her cancellation of her trip to Paris upset our plan.她取消了巴黎之行打乱了我们的计划。
17 rebound YAtz1     
v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回
参考例句：
  • The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
  • Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。
18 economist AuhzVs     
n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人
参考例句：
  • He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
  • He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。
19 high-tech high-tech     
adj.高科技的
参考例句：
  • The economy is in the upswing which makes high-tech services in more demand too.经济在蓬勃发展，这就使对高科技服务的需求量也在加大。
  • The quest of a cure for disease with high-tech has never ceased. 人们希望运用高科技治疗疾病的追求从未停止过。
20 structural itXw5     
adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的
参考例句：
  • The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
  • The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。
21 transformation SnFwO     
n.变化；改造；转变
参考例句：
  • Going to college brought about a dramatic transformation in her outlook.上大学使她的观念发生了巨大的变化。
  • He was struggling to make the transformation from single man to responsible husband.他正在努力使自己由单身汉变为可靠的丈夫。
22 stabilize PvuwZ     
vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定
参考例句：
  • They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
  • His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。
23 livelihood sppzWF     
n.生计，谋生之道
参考例句：
  • Appropriate arrangements will be made for their work and livelihood.他们的工作和生活会得到妥善安排。
  • My father gained a bare livelihood of family by his own hands.父亲靠自己的双手勉强维持家计。
24 intensifying 6af105724a108def30288b810d78b276     
v.（使）增强， （使）加剧( intensify的现在分词 )；增辉
参考例句：
  • The allies are intensifying their air campaign. 联军部队正加大他们的空战强度。 来自辞典例句
  • The rest of the European powers were in a state of intensifying congestion. 其余的欧洲强国则处于越来越拥挤的状态。 来自英汉非文学 - 历史
25 mechanism zCWxr     
n.机械装置；机构，结构
参考例句：
  • The bones and muscles are parts of the mechanism of the body.骨骼和肌肉是人体的组成部件。
  • The mechanism of the machine is very complicated.这台机器的结构是非常复杂的。
26 Stabilization d25ce94d7d536526af8bf72d72ebfb5f     
稳定化
参考例句：
  • The position of barycentre on plane directly impacts the stabilization and manipulation of plane. 飞机重心位置直接影响飞机的稳定和操纵特性。
  • With the higher olefins, stabilization of the energetic intermediates occurs more easily. 在较高的烯烃情况下，高能的中间物稳定作用更易出现。
27 tightening 19aa014b47fbdfbc013e5abf18b64642     
上紧，固定，紧密
参考例句：
  • Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
  • It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。
28 restrictions 81e12dac658cfd4c590486dd6f7523cf     
约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）
参考例句：
  • I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
  • a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

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