Economists warn of real estate bubble

时间：2007-01-15 00:38:12

（单词翻译:单击）
 
Jan. 13 - Beijing should keep its interest rate high and the real estate sector1 cool, according to a recent report from top research body the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

 

CASS economists3 said in the report, 2006-07: World Economy Analysis and Forecast, that it was necessary to keep the interest rate high and real estate cool to avoid the risk of a crisis such as the one Japan weathered in the 1990s.

 

"China should not increase domestic demand on the price as it could risk enlarging the real estate bubble," according to the report.

 

China should draw lessons from Japan in the 1980s, when the country's low interest rates caused domestic demand to rise so much it eventually created a huge real estate bubble for the economy.

 

"There are amazing similarities between the current Chinese real estate market and that of Japan's in the 1980s," the report said.

 

"Prices in China's property market have grown fast, and inflation hasn't caught up yet.

 

"But after two consecutive4 years of gross domestic product growth surpassing double digits5, signs of inflation have appeared."

 

In 1985 under the Plaza6 Accord the Japanese yen7 immediately appreciated, heating up its real estate market. In the following six years commercial land prices in its six major cities increased threefold to three times higher than those in the United States at the time.

 

Investors8 considered the property market was the best and most stable to invest in and believed interest rates would not change. It was easy to get loans from banks.

 

But the situation was not given enough attention by the Japanese government, which introduced further financial and property policies to drive up the market.

 

The property market fell apart in the 1990s, leading to "the lost 10 years" of economic stagnation9. The Japanese economy did not recover from the nightmare until the end of 2005.

 

"Different from Japan, the Chinese government has adopted many macro regulatory measures in the sector since 2005, with good results," the report said.

 

"However, the measures have not dealt with all the possible risks. China still has a lot in common with Japan at that time."

 

The renminbi currently faces further appreciation10 pressure. Under a low interest-rate policy a great deal of capital flows to the property market.

 

"The government should not be deluded11 by the stable commodity price index, as price growth was also nearly zero in Japan in the middle and late 1980s," the report said. "China should avoid the asset bubbles brought by national macro strategic adjustment."

 

Enhancing interest rates will inevitably12 be another step in the country's macroeconomic controls, said Wu Jinglian, a renowned13 economist2 with the Development Research Center under the State Council, earlier this week.

 

The bull-run of the stock market saw overall capital injected into the A-share market hit 677.9 billion yuan ($84.5 billion) at the end of 2006, more than three times the amount at the beginning of the year.

 

"There is at least 30 trillion yuan ($3.75 trillion) in surplus fluid capital on the Chinese market, and this has heated up the real estate sector and the stock market." He called on the government to foster a market-based adjustment for major economic factors instead of introducing more control measures.

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1 sector yjczYn     
n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形
参考例句：
  • The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
  • The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。
2 economist AuhzVs     
n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人
参考例句：
  • He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
  • He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。
3 economists 2ba0a36f92d9c37ef31cc751bca1a748     
n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )
参考例句：
  • The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
  • Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》
4 consecutive DpPz0     
adj.连续的，联贯的，始终一贯的
参考例句：
  • It has rained for four consecutive days.已连续下了四天雨。
  • The policy of our Party is consecutive.我党的政策始终如一。
5 digits a2aacbd15b619a9b9e5581a6c33bd2b1     
n.数字( digit的名词复数 )；手指，足趾
参考例句：
  • The number 1000 contains four digits. 1000是四位数。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • The number 410 contains three digits. 数字 410 中包括三个数目字。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
6 plaza v2yzD     
n.广场，市场
参考例句：
  • They designated the new shopping centre York Plaza.他们给这个新购物中心定名为约克购物中心。
  • The plaza is teeming with undercover policemen.这个广场上布满了便衣警察。
7 yen JfSwN     
n. 日元；热望
参考例句：
  • He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
  • He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。
8 investors dffc64354445b947454450e472276b99     
n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )
参考例句：
  • a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
  • a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会
9 stagnation suVwt     
n. 停滞
参考例句：
  • Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
  • Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。
10 appreciation Pv9zs     
n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨
参考例句：
  • I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
  • I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。
11 deluded 7cff2ff368bbd8757f3c8daaf8eafd7f     
v.欺骗，哄骗( delude的过去式和过去分词 )
参考例句：
  • Don't be deluded into thinking that we are out of danger yet. 不要误以为我们已脱离危险。
  • She deluded everyone into following her. 她骗得每个人都听信她的。 来自《简明英汉词典》
12 inevitably x7axc     
adv.不可避免地；必然发生地
参考例句：
  • In the way you go on,you are inevitably coming apart.照你们这样下去，毫无疑问是会散伙的。
  • Technological changes will inevitably lead to unemployment.技术变革必然会导致失业。
13 renowned okSzVe     
adj.著名的，有名望的，声誉鹊起的
参考例句：
  • He is one of the world's renowned writers.他是世界上知名的作家之一。
  • She is renowned for her advocacy of human rights.她以提倡人权而闻名。

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