预言：奥巴马将深陷丑闻

时间：2011-06-04 03:04:17

（单词翻译:单击）

President Obama's administration is set to be rocked by scandal - at least, according to one political scientist's mathematical formula.

奥巴马政府即将爆发丑闻，至少一位政治学者的数学公式是这么推断的。

A newly-released report by scholar Brendan Nyhan predicts the reputation of the 44th US president will soon be marred1 by controversy2.

Where Are the Obama Scandals? calls the odds3 of scandal 'high and rising' after two years in office, based on his interpretation4（翻译，解释） of data from presidential scandals between 1977 and 2008.

Nyhan, a scholar at the University of Michigan, released the report to website Center for Politics on Thursday.

Serving as a guest columnist5, he presented detailed6 graphs illustrating7 the likelihood of a scandal to unfold before the 2012 presidential election - rising between 95 and 100 per cent by June of next year.

The report reads: 'Obama has been extremely fortunate: My research on presidential scandals shows that few presidents avoid scandal for as long as he has.'

He tested his hypotheses on scandal coverage8 data from Washington Post news reports and chronologies（年代） of presidential events covered by the New York Times.

'In the 1977-2008 period,' he wrote, 'the longest that a president has gone without having a scandal featured in a front-page Washington Post article is 34 months - the period between when President Bush took office in January 2001 and the Valerie Plame scandal in October 2003.'

Nyhan claims his research is supported by the lack of support among Republicans for the Obama administration, and predicts he will follow 'a similar trajectory9（轨道） to Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton (who both suffered significant first-term scandals).'


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1 marred 5fc2896f7cb5af68d251672a8d30b5b5     
adj. 被损毁, 污损的
参考例句：
  • The game was marred by the behaviour of drunken fans. 喝醉了的球迷行为不轨，把比赛给搅了。
  • Bad diction marred the effectiveness of his speech. 措词不当影响了他演说的效果。
2 controversy 6Z9y0     
n.争论，辩论，争吵
参考例句：
  • That is a fact beyond controversy.那是一个无可争论的事实。
  • We ran the risk of becoming the butt of every controversy.我们要冒使自己在所有的纷争中都成为众矢之的的风险。
3 odds n5czT     
n.让步，机率，可能性，比率；胜败优劣之别
参考例句：
  • The odds are 5 to 1 that she will win.她获胜的机会是五比一。
  • Do you know the odds of winning the lottery once?你知道赢得一次彩票的几率多大吗？
4 interpretation P5jxQ     
n.解释，说明，描述；艺术处理
参考例句：
  • His statement admits of one interpretation only.他的话只有一种解释。
  • Analysis and interpretation is a very personal thing.分析与说明是个很主观的事情。
5 columnist XwwzUQ     
n.专栏作家
参考例句：
  • The host was interviewing a local columnist.节目主持人正在同一位当地的专栏作家交谈。
  • She's a columnist for USA Today.她是《今日美国报》的专栏作家。
6 detailed xuNzms     
adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的
参考例句：
  • He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
  • A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。
7 illustrating a99f5be8a18291b13baa6ba429f04101     
给…加插图( illustrate的现在分词 )； 说明； 表明； （用示例、图画等）说明
参考例句：
  • He upstaged the other speakers by illustrating his talk with slides. 他演讲中配上幻灯片，比其他演讲人更吸引听众。
  • Material illustrating detailed structure of graptolites has been etched from limestone by means of hydrofluoric acid. 表明笔石详细构造的物质是利用氢氟酸从石灰岩中侵蚀出来。
8 coverage nvwz7v     
n.报导，保险范围，保险额，范围，覆盖
参考例句：
  • There's little coverage of foreign news in the newspaper.报纸上几乎没有国外新闻报道。
  • This is an insurance policy with extensive coverage.这是一项承保范围广泛的保险。
9 trajectory fJ1z1     
n.弹道，轨道
参考例句：
  • It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
  • The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

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