时间:2022-05-16 05:37:49


After several major shock waves of COVID-19 outbreaks since 2020, China's economy has gradually recovered from the impact brought by the contagion1, though recovery in household consumption has been relatively2 slow. There is still a certain gap between current household consumption levels and originally expected levels, or the trendline level for the sector3. The gap is mainly attributable to some nonessential consumption sectors4 including education, entertainment, transportation and healthcare.
Trendlines are used to analyze5 the specific direction of a group of values or phenomena6. There are two kinds of trendlines-uptrends and downtrends. Trendlines allow businesses to see differences at various points over a period of time. This helps foretell7 possible paths values might take in the future, and reveal performance, value and competitiveness factors of specific products and services, along with relevant business departments, such as sales.
The trendline hereafter mentioned is calculated based on data of total consumer spending collected through government surveys from 2013 to 2021.
Based on calculations using official data, we made a comparison between actual household consumption with calculated trendlines in the corresponding period and found that though the gap between household consumption in 2021 and the trendline is significantly narrower than that in 2020, the gap still exists, which stands at some 590 billion yuan ($92.6 billion).
If viewed from a consumption structure, among the eight major categories of consumer spending, the consumption of daily necessities, such as clothing, housing, food, tobacco and alcohol, in 2021 has basically returned to the trendline level shown before the COVID-19 outbreak. However, recovery in nonessential consumption sectors, such as durable8 goods and services, is slower than expected, with the gap between current consumption levels and the trendline level shown before the COVID-19 outbreak still relatively large. Among all sectors witnessing consumption gaps in 2021, education, culture and entertainment consumption make up the largest portions. Other nonessential-or optional-consumption sectors, though having seen narrower gaps, are still falling behind the trendline level, among which transportation and communication consumption makes up the major part, followed by education, culture and entertainment.
Based on the above information, it is obvious that there is still great potential for consumption recovery, and the key to unleashing9 that potential is to identify restrictive factors. Currently, there are two mainstream10 explanations surrounding the slow recovery in consumption. One is that the current COVID-19 situation is affecting the recovery of household consumption to a certain extent, especially that of services consumption. The other is that the slow recovery of consumption actually reflects that household incomes have not fully11 recovered.
The impact of COVID-19 situation on goods consumption is obviously much smaller than that on services, so if COVID-19 situation is the main factor restricting household consumption, we are supposed to have a clear view of a structural12 differentiation13 in commodities and services consumption-that is, commodity consumption gradually inching closer to the trendline level, while service consumption deviates14 significantly from its own.
However, according to our calculations based on official data since 2021, the gap of actual consumer goods consumption between its trendline level-which has been narrowing from the start of the year-has remained steady since July 2021, with no signs of further narrowing for the remainder of the year. The gap between services consumption and its trendline level is even larger, reflecting shocks of several rounds of domestic COVID-19 resurgences to the sector.
The analysis, together with the figures, tell us the significance of raising household disposable incomes in maintaining China's stable growth this year.
Household disposable consumption is not only the foundation for better livelihoods15, but also a pillar for stable economic growth. The current relative sluggish16 consumption performance is certainly due to the pandemic, but a more important reason is the lack of disposable income. Therefore, increasing disposable income and shaping good income expectations are the basis of, and key to, promoting consumption.
Our first thought to this end is that macroeconomic policies should always focus on "steady growth", as was highlighted in many recent top meetings. Continued efforts are needed to ensure a reasonable economic growth rate and full employment, and consolidate17 the economic foundation to improve household incomes. In this process, fiscal18 policy is particularly important. It is necessary to demonstrate a clear expansion in the level of fiscal expenditure19 growth while having clear visibility of the bottom line-the growth rate of fiscal expenditure cannot be lower than the nominal20 GDP growth rate.
Second, the structure of public spending should be continuously optimized21. In addition to tax and fee reductions for the corporate22 sector, subsidies23 for low and middle-income groups should also be strengthened. During economic downturns, vulnerable families are the first to suffer. By issuing temporary subsidies to low-income groups, the elderly and infants, such a policy can help achieve two goals-protecting people's livelihoods and helping24 boost consumption. A common concern is that subsidies will primarily translate into savings25 rather than consumption. It should be noted26 that if subsidies are mainly transformed into savings rather than consumption, there will be no pressure on inflation. No monetary27 and fiscal policy space will be consumed, and the policy cost will be very low.
Third, the government should implement28 more precise and powerful consumption stimulus29 policies based on prices and income elasticity30 of different consumer goods. The income and price elasticity of optional consumption sectors, such as education, entertainment, transportation and medical care, is relatively high, and these sectors are exactly where sluggish consumption is witnessed. Consumer coupons31, consumption subsidies and other means of encouraging measures should focus on these sectors to obtain greater policy effect.
Last but not least it is important to alleviate32 the anxiety brought by the uncertainty33 of the COVID-19 pandemic for small and micro enterprises and self-employed business owners. These very market entities34 are all associated with mass employment, especially low- and middle-income earners. The government can set up a special fund to cover their expenses related to COVID-19 prevention, such as nucleic acid testing, quarantine costs and treatment.
Compensation measures for market players that have suffered from the COVID-19 pandemic should be formulated35, and market players should be informed in advance that they may be compensated36 for their operating losses due to pandemic prevention and control work. Developing targeted capital support to help smaller enterprises resume operations is also helpful to this end. Such efforts will strengthen market players' confidence in investment and operations, and enable them to play bigger roles in supporting the nation's stable growth.



1 contagion 9ZNyl     
  • A contagion of fear swept through the crowd.一种恐惧感在人群中迅速蔓延开。
  • The product contagion effect has numerous implications for marketing managers and retailers.产品传染效应对市场营销管理者和零售商都有很多的启示。
2 relatively bkqzS3     
  • The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
  • The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。
3 sector yjczYn     
  • The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
  • The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。
4 sectors 218ffb34fa5fb6bc1691e90cd45ad627     
n.部门( sector的名词复数 );领域;防御地区;扇形
  • Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
5 analyze RwUzm     
vt.分析,解析 (=analyse)
  • We should analyze the cause and effect of this event.我们应该分析这场事变的因果。
  • The teacher tried to analyze the cause of our failure.老师设法分析我们失败的原因。
6 phenomena 8N9xp     
  • Ade couldn't relate the phenomena with any theory he knew.艾德无法用他所知道的任何理论来解释这种现象。
  • The object of these experiments was to find the connection,if any,between the two phenomena.这些实验的目的就是探索这两种现象之间的联系,如果存在着任何联系的话。
7 foretell 9i3xj     
  • Willow trees breaking out into buds foretell the coming of spring.柳枝绽青报春来。
  • The outcome of the war is hard to foretell.战争胜负难以预卜。
8 durable frox4     
  • This raincoat is made of very durable material.这件雨衣是用非常耐用的料子做的。
  • They frequently require more major durable purchases.他们经常需要购买耐用消费品。
9 unleashing 8742c1b567c83ec8d9e14c8aeacbc729     
v.把(感情、力量等)释放出来,发泄( unleash的现在分词 )
  • Company logos: making people's life better by unleashing Cummins power. 公司理念:以康明斯动力建设更美好的生活! 来自互联网
  • Sooner or later the dam will burst, unleashing catastrophic destruction. 否则堤坝将崩溃,酿成灾难。 来自互联网
10 mainstream AoCzh9     
  • Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
  • Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。
11 fully Gfuzd     
  • The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气,然后全部呼出。
  • They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。
12 structural itXw5     
  • The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
  • The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。
13 differentiation wuozfs     
  • There can be no differentiation without contrast. 有比较才有差别。
  • The operation that is the inverse of differentiation is called integration. 与微分相反的运算叫做积分。
14 deviates 095f40a93b73fe7ea87eddba8bee1aec     
v.偏离,越轨( deviate的第三人称单数 )
  • The boy's behavior deviates from the usual pattern. 这个男孩子的举止与一般人不同。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • The limit occurs when the ordinate deviates appreciably from unity. 这个限度发生在纵坐标明显地从单位1偏离的时候。 来自辞典例句
15 livelihoods 53a2f8716b41c07918d6fc5d944b18a5     
生计,谋生之道( livelihood的名词复数 )
  • First came the earliest individualistic pioneers who depended on hunting and fishing for their livelihoods. 走在最前面的是早期的个人主义先驱者,他们靠狩猎捕鱼为生。 来自英汉非文学 - 政府文件
  • With little influence over policies, their traditional livelihoods are threatened. 因为马赛族人对政策的影响力太小,他们的传统生计受到了威胁。
16 sluggish VEgzS     
  • This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
  • Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。
17 consolidate XYkyV     
  • The two banks will consolidate in July next year. 这两家银行明年7月将合并。
  • The government hoped to consolidate ten states to form three new ones.政府希望把十个州合并成三个新的州。
18 fiscal agbzf     
  • The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
  • The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。
19 expenditure XPbzM     
  • The entry of all expenditure is necessary.有必要把一切开支入账。
  • The monthly expenditure of our family is four hundred dollars altogether.我们一家的开销每月共计四百元。
20 nominal Y0Tyt     
  • The king was only the nominal head of the state. 国王只是这个国家名义上的元首。
  • The charge of the box lunch was nominal.午餐盒饭收费很少。
21 optimized 81c61ac8ff2adb570ce4c7e7dfed59bd     
adj.最佳化的,(使)最优化的v.使最优化,使尽可能有效( optimize的过去式和过去分词 )
  • We are often asked whether consumer Web sites should be optimized for beginners or intermediates. 我们常常被问到这样的问题:消费类网站究竟应该为新手而优化,还是应该为中间用户而优化? 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
  • GOOGLE Advertising optimized sequence, greatly increasing the advertising effect. 优化了GOOGLE广告位排列顺序,大大增加了广告效果。 来自互联网
22 corporate 7olzl     
  • This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
  • His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。
23 subsidies 84c7dc8329c19e43d3437248757e572c     
n.补贴,津贴,补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )
  • European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
  • Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》
24 helping 2rGzDc     
  • The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
  • By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。
25 savings ZjbzGu     
  • I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假,那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
  • By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时,他的存款已全部用完。
26 noted 5n4zXc     
  • The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
  • Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。
27 monetary pEkxb     
  • The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
  • Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。
28 implement WcdzG     
  • Don't undertake a project unless you can implement it.不要承担一项计划,除非你能完成这项计划。
  • The best implement for digging a garden is a spade.在花园里挖土的最好工具是铁锹。
29 stimulus 3huyO     
  • Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
  • Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。
30 elasticity 8jlzp     
  • The skin eventually loses its elasticity.皮肤最终会失去弹性。
  • Every sort of spring has a definite elasticity.每一种弹簧都有一定的弹性。
31 coupons 28882724d375042a7b19db1e976cb622     
n.礼券( coupon的名词复数 );优惠券;订货单;参赛表
  • The company gives away free coupons for drinks or other items. 公司为饮料或其它项目发放免费赠券。 来自辞典例句
  • Do you have any coupons? 你们有优惠卡吗? 来自英汉 - 翻译样例 - 口语
32 alleviate ZxEzJ     
  • The doctor gave her an injection to alleviate the pain.医生给她注射以减轻疼痛。
  • Nothing could alleviate his distress.什么都不能减轻他的痛苦。
33 uncertainty NlFwK     
  • Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
  • After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后,压力开始产生影响了。
34 entities 07214c6750d983a32e0a33da225c4efd     
实体对像; 实体,独立存在体,实际存在物( entity的名词复数 )
  • Our newspaper and our printing business form separate corporate entities. 我们的报纸和印刷业形成相对独立的企业实体。
  • The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities. 北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。
35 formulated cfc86c2c7185ae3f93c4d8a44e3cea3c     
v.构想出( formulate的过去式和过去分词 );规划;确切地阐述;用公式表示
  • He claims that the writer never consciously formulated his own theoretical position. 他声称该作家从未有意识地阐明他自己的理论见解。 来自《简明英汉词典》
  • This idea can be formulated in two different ways. 这个意思可以有两种说法。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
36 compensated 0b0382816fac7dbf94df37906582be8f     
补偿,报酬( compensate的过去式和过去分词 ); 给(某人)赔偿(或赔款)
  • The marvelous acting compensated for the play's weak script. 本剧的精彩表演弥补了剧本的不足。
  • I compensated his loss with money. 我赔偿他经济损失。