2023年美国经济增长前景疲软或极为疲软

据新华社1月16日报道，世界经济论坛16日发布的调查显示，三分之二受访首席经济学家预计2023年会出现全球性的经济衰退，91%的受访者认为2023年美国经济增长前景疲软或极为疲软。

 

Two-thirds of chief economists¹ from private and public sectors² expect a global recession in 2023, according to a survey released on Monday at the annual World Economic Forum³ (WEF) in Switzerland.

1月16日，在瑞士举办的世界经济论坛上发布的《首席经济学家展望》调查报告显示，三分之二的私立和公共机构首席经济学家预计，2023年将出现全球性经济衰退。

 

The surveyed economists anticipate further monetary⁴ tightening⁵ in the United States and Europe this year, and they see geopolitical tensions continuing to shape the global economy.

受访经济学家预测，欧洲和美国今年将进一步收紧货币政策，地缘政治紧张局势将继续影响全球经济。

 

Some 18 percent of the respondents, more than twice the number in the previous survey in September 2022, considered a world recession "extremely likely." Only a third of them viewed it as unlikely this year.

约18%的受访者认为世界经济“极有可能”陷入衰退，这一比例是2022年9月份调查结果的两倍多。只有三分之一的受访者认为今年不太可能出现衰退。

 

The WEF's survey, "Chief Economists Outlook," was based on 22 responses from a group of senior economists drawn⁶ from international agencies, including the International Monetary Fund, investment banks, multinationals⁸ and reinsurance groups.

该调查受访者包括来自国际货币基金组织、投行、跨国公司和再保险集团等国际机构的22名高级经济学家。

 

According to a WEF statement on the survey, there was a strong consensus⁹ that the prospects¹⁰ for growth in 2023 are bleak¹¹, especially in Europe and the United States. All the chief economists surveyed expect weak or very weak growth in 2023 in Europe, while 91 percent expect weak or very weak growth in the United States.

世界经济论坛发布的调查报告称，经济学家普遍认为，2023年全球经济前景黯淡，尤其是欧美地区。受访经济学家一致认为2023年欧洲经济前景萧条或非常萧条，91%的受访者认为2023年美国经济增长前景疲软，或者极为疲软。

 

This marks a deterioration¹² since the last statement when the corresponding figures were 86 percent for Europe and 64 percent for the United States.

这意味着经济学家们对欧美经济前景更加悲观，此前相应调查的占比分别为86%和64%。

 

"The current high inflation, low growth, high debt and high fragmentation environment reduces incentives¹³ for the investments needed to get back to growth and raise living standards for the world's most vulnerable," WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi said in the statement.

世界经济论坛常务董事萨迪亚·扎希迪当天发布声明称：“目前的高通胀、低增长、高负债和高度分散的环境降低了恢复增长和提高世界上最弱势群体生活水平所需投资的动力。”

 

Nine out of 10 respondents expect both weak demand and high borrowing costs to weigh on firms, with more than 60 percent also pointing to higher input¹⁴ costs. These challenges are expected to lead multinational⁷ businesses to cut costs, with many chief economists expecting firms to reduce operational expenses.

90%的受访者预计，需求疲软和高借贷成本会给企业带来压力，超过60%的受访者认为成本将升高。预计这些挑战将导致跨国公司削减成本，许多首席经济学家预计企业将减少运营开支。

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