2007年3月22日 中外合资基金管理面临盈利压力

Two thirds of Sino-foreign fund management joint¹ ventures have yet to reach break-even, amid increasing consolidation² pressure in the word's fastest-growing mut-ual fund market.

管理咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)的一份报告指出，2016年，中国国内共同基金资产将从去年底的1100亿美元跃升至8900亿美元，复合年增长率为23%。未来十年，包括中国养老基金在内的总资产，可能会从1560亿美元增至1.4万亿美元。

A report by McKinsey, the management consultancy, suggests that Chinese domestic mutual³ fund assets will jump from $110bn (€83bn, ￡56bn) at the end of last year to $890bn in 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 23 per cent. Overall assets, including Chinese pension funds, may increase from $156bn to $1,400bn over the next 10 years.

然而，麦肯锡驻上海的负责人白德范(Stephan Binder⁴)认为，拥挤的中国市场将出现以下情况：10到15家主要公司之间将日益两极分化，小公司数量将不断缩减。

However, Stephan Binder, a Shanghai-based McKinsey principal, believes the crowded Chinese market will see a growing polarisation between 10-15 leading firms and a dwindling⁵ number of smaller rivals.

白德范表示，到2016年，以中国为焦点的基金公司可能会获得20亿到30亿美元的年收益。58家共同基金管理公司正在争相吸引投资者的注意力，包括24家外国股东持有少数股权的合资企业，如JP摩根资产管理(JPMorgan Asset Management)和景顺(Invesco)。

China-focused fund houses could pocket $2bn-$3bn in annual profits by 2016, Mr Binder said. Some 58 domestic mutual fund managers - including 24 joint ventures with minority foreign shareholders⁶ such as JPMorgan Asset Management and Invesco - have been vying⁷ for investors⁸' attention.

麦肯锡这份报告指出，60%以上的中国基金管理公司和三分之二的中外合资企业，都还没有达到7亿到8亿美元管理资产的收支平衡关口。

The McKinsey report suggests that more than 60 per cent of Chinese managers, and two thirds of Sino-foreign ventures, have yet to reach the break-even threshold of $700m-$800m in assets under management.

过去4年，率先进入中国的外国基金公司一直在寻求叩开中国2万亿银行存款的大门，这是全球最大的储蓄资源之一。
Over the past four years, foreign fund pioneers have been seeking to tap China's $2,000bn in bank deposits, one of the world's largest savings⁹ pools.

去年，中国公民近80%的金融资产是以现金或低收益现金存款的形式持有的。麦肯锡预计，到2016年，这一比率将降至60%。

Last year, Chinese citizens held almost 80 per cent of their financial assets in cash and low-yielding cash deposits, with McKinsey expecting this ratio to decline to 60 per cent by 2016.

2005年，中国被管理的总资产仅占国内生产总值的8%。相比之下，美国的这一比率为214%。

Total Chinese managed assets accounted for only 8 per cent of gross domestic product in 2005, compared with 214 per cent in the US.

2006年底，中外合资公司在1100亿美元国内共同基金资产中所占比例接近40%。这与中国金融业其它领域的情况形成了鲜明对比。在其它领域，海外集团影响甚微、或者毫无影响。

Sino-foreign firms ac-counted for almost 40 per cent of the $110bn in domestic mutual fund assets at the end of 2006. This contrasts sharply with other parts of China's financial sector¹⁰, where overseas groups have little or no influence.

然而，分析人士认为，未来两年，中外合资公司的市场份额也许会下降，反映出大型国内公司带来的竞争压力以及合资企业之间日益紧张的局势。

However, analysts¹¹ believe Sino-foreign firms will probably see their market share drop in the next two years, reflecting competitive pressure from big domestic rivals and growing tensions within joint ventures.