Opening ceremony could be rain-free

The chance of rain during the opening ceremony is slimmer than reported earlier, but thunderstorms, high temperatures and muggy¹ skies still pose a threat to the Beijing Olympics.

An analysis of weather data from 1975 to 2007 from the Haidian district observatory², the closest to the "Bird's Nest" where the opening ceremony will be held, shows the chance of rain spoiling the show is 41 percent, said Qiao Lin, chief forecaster of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), yesterday.

An earlier analysis, based on data from the entire city, suggested there was a 47-50 percent chance of rain on August 8.

Qiao held out further hope for a perfect opening day for the Games, saying that even if it rains, it will be light.

But inclement³ weather could still play spoilsport during the 17-day Games, said Chen Zhenlin, deputy director of CMA's forecasting service and disaster mitigation department.

"Thunderstorms, heavy rain, high temperatures, muggy skies and even hailstorms could be a problem," said Chen, who is also director of the Olympic Weather Service Center.

Beijing has made every possible effort to prevent bad weather from interrupting the Games. It even rescheduled it from July 25-August 10 to August 8-24 to avoid the rainy season.

But global warming has made extreme weather a more frequent and intensive affair, said CMA spokesman Yu Xinwen. This year has been especially bad for China, starting from the snowstorms in February to the recent heavy rain and floods and Beijing is experiencing its wettest June in 15 years, Yu said.

Meteorological offices will intensify⁴ their efforts, especially during the Games, to forecast accurate weather on an hourly basis. And all forecasts will be in Chinese and English.

Weather experts from former Olympic host countries, such as the US, Canada, Japan and Australia, will be in China in August to share their expertise⁵ and technology, Chen said.

Weather forecasting satellite Fengyun-3A (FY-3A), launched recently, is expected to begin functioning before the Games, and, together with FY-1D, FY-2C and FY-2D satellites, offer more precise weather data, Yu said.

Modifying the weather artificially during the Games is a possibility, he said. Planes and rockets could spread silver iodine⁶ and dry ice high into the atmosphere to target cumulonimbus clouds and induce rain before the clouds veer⁷ toward the Olympic venues⁸.

But the technology can only prevent light rainfall, he said. It is powerless against thick, widely spread, huge mass of clouds.

Questions:

1. What does Qiao Lin, chief forecaster of the China Meteorological Administration say is the chance of rain on August 8?

2. Name two weather situations that could pose a threat to the Olympics.

3. How can scientists modify the weather artificially?

Answers:

1. 41 percent.

2. Thunderstorms, heavy rain, high temperatures, muggy skies and hailstorms.

3. They can send planes and rockets into the sky, spreading silver iodine and dry ice on cumulonimbus clouds to induce rain.