预测东非旱情需要新方法

With more than 40 million people living under exceptional drought conditions in East Africa, the ability to make accurate predictions of drought has never been more important. In the aftermath of widespread famine（饥荒） and a humanitarian¹ crisis caused by the 2010-2011 drought in the Horn of Africa -- possibly the worst drought in 60 years -- researchers are striving to determine whether drying trends will continue. While it is clear that El Niño can affect precipitation（沉淀，冰雹） in this region of East Africa, very little is known about the drivers of long-term shifts in rainfall. However, new research described in the journal Nature helps explain the mechanisms² at work behind historical patterns of aridity³ in Eastern Africa over many decades, and the findings may help improve future predictions of drought and food security in the region.

 

"The problem is, instrumental records of temperature and rainfall, especially in East Africa, don't go far enough in time to study climate variability over decades or more, since they are generally limited to the 20th century," explains first author Jessica Tierney, a geologist⁴ at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). Tierney and her colleagues at WHOI and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory⁵ of Columbia University used what is known as the paleoclimate（地质气候） record, which provides information on climate in the geologic⁶ past, to study East African climate change over a span of 700 years.

 

The paleoclimate record in East Africa consists of indicators⁷ of moisture balance -- including pollen⁸（花粉）, water isotopes⁹, charcoal¹⁰, and evidence for run-off events -- measured in lake sediment¹¹ cores. Tierney and her colleagues synthesized these data, revealing a clear pattern wherein the easternmost sector¹² of East Africa was relatively¹³ dry in medieval times (from 1300 to 1400 a.d.), wet during the "Little Ice Age" from approximately 1600 to 1800 a.d., and then drier again toward the present time.

 

Climate model simulations analyzed¹⁴ as part of the study revealed that the relationship between sea surface temperatures and atmospheric¹⁵ convection in the Indian Ocean changes rainfall in East Africa. Specifically, wet conditions in coastal¹⁶ East Africa are associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, which cause ascending¹⁷ atmospheric circulation over East Africa and enhanced rainfall. The opposite situation -- cold sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and warmer in the East -- causes drought. Such variations in sea-surface temperatures likely caused the historical fluctuations¹⁸ in rainfall seen in the paleorecord.

 

The central role of the Indian Ocean in long-term climate change in the region was a surprise. "While the Indian Ocean has long been thought of as a 'little brother' to the Pacific, it is clear that it is in charge when it comes to these decades-long changes in precipitation in East Africa," says Tierney.

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